UAE official says US-Iran deal chance is 50-50 at talks in Prague

A senior United Arab Emirates official has said there is an equal chance of success or failure in ongoing diplomatic efforts to secure a U.S.-Iran peace agreement, warning that renewed conflict would destabilize global energy markets. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, made the remarks on Friday at the Globsec conference in Prague.

Gargash assessed the likelihood of a deal at fifty-fifty. He expressed concern that Iran has a history of over-negotiating, which he said has caused it to miss diplomatic opportunities in the past. He urged Iranian officials not to repeat that pattern during the current, fragile ceasefire.

The negotiations, which Pakistan has been mediating, aim to end a war that has shaken the global economy and disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments pass through this strategic waterway. Gargash stressed that any political settlement must address the root causes of regional instability to prevent future conflict. He warned that a second round of military confrontation would further complicate matters.

The UAE has been directly impacted by the hostilities. Gargash...