U.S. Users Lead Polymarket Political Trading Despite Ban

New research shows that users based in the United States represent the single largest group engaging in political prediction markets on the global platform of Polymarket, despite the platform's ban on American access. The findings, from blockchain analytics firm Allium and published on Thursday, July 2, 2026, indicate that U.S. demand for these markets has not been eliminated by geoblocking measures but has instead shifted offshore and outside direct U.S. oversight.

According to Allium’s report, the United States ranks as the biggest national political market on Polymarket by both the number of contracts traded and the count of participating wallets, based on the subset of wallets the firm could link to a country. The analysis covered roughly 6% of Polymarket wallets with country tags, meaning the figures are considered directional rather than definitive. The firm concluded that blocking access did not end U.S. participation; rather, it effectively concentrated that activity, making the U.S. the largest single political market by volume on the global platform.

This activity persists despite Polymarket's formal restrictions. In 2022, the company reached a $1.4 million settlement...