U.S. intel: Russia may test NATO with attack by 2029

U.S. intelligence assessments warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin could test NATO's unity and resolve with a limited military attack on an alliance member within the next few years, according to a report. The analysis, which marks a shift from earlier assessments, suggests a timeframe for potential action extending from later this year through 2029.

Officials described a range of possible scenarios, including cyberattacks, sabotage, hybrid operations, or a small-scale ground incursion, rather than a full-scale invasion. The assessment indicates that while a limited military incursion is currently considered low probability, the risk could increase over time. This reassessment comes as Russia faces mounting pressure in Ukraine, with some officials fearing that a Kremlin leadership under strain could become more willing to take risks abroad.

Recent incidents have heightened Western concerns. In late July, a Russian cruise missile landed in Polish territory, creating a large crater in an uninhabited area. Drones have also entered Romanian airspace, and on August 5, an explosive-laden drone was found near a Ukrainian cargo plane at an airport in Germany, an incident described...