Study outlines options to avert 2032 lunar impact from 2024 YR4

An asteroid discovered in December 2024 that briefly raised alarm for a possible Earth impact now poses a smaller but consequential risk to the Moon, and researchers are outlining how to prevent a December 2032 lunar collision. The rock, known as 2024 YR4, is about 60 meters across, and while NASA’s Center for Near Earth Objects has essentially ruled out an Earth strike, current orbital solutions place roughly a 4 percent chance that it could hit the Moon on or about December 23, 2032, according to a team of scientists including NASA researchers.

The likelihood of a lunar impact has prompted a paper submitted to the Journal of the Astronautical Sciences, posted as a preprint on arXiv, that evaluates three broad responses: reconnaissance to better measure the asteroid, attempts to deflect it, or deliberately disrupt it. The researchers warn that although a lunar impact is still unlikely, the consequences for Earth-orbiting spacecraft could be severe. Models cited by the team indicate a Moon strike could excavate a crater perhaps a kilometer across and throw enough debris into Earth vicinity to raise micrometeoroid fluxes by orders of magnitude for days, endangering satellites...