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Study links iPhone rollout to decline in US fertility rates

Published 9 June 2026

A new economic study suggests the introduction of the iPhone in 2007 played a significant role in accelerating the decline of U.S. fertility rates, offering a technological explanation for a demographic trend that has puzzled experts. The research, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, indicates that between 33 and 52 percent of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15 to 44 from 2007 to 2011 can be attributed to the diffusion of the smartphone.

For years, the sustained drop in birth rates was primarily attributed to the economic anxiety following the 2008 financial crisis. However, when the economy recovered and birth rates continued to fall, researchers began looking for other causes. Economists Caitlin Myers and Ezekiel Hooper of Middlebury College seized on a unique historical circumstance to test a hypothesis about technology's role. From its launch in June 2007 until February 2011, the iPhone was sold exclusively on the AT&T network in the United States. Because AT&T's mobile broadband coverage was not universal, the researchers were able to compare birth rate trends in counties with strong AT&T coverage to those served primarily by...

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