Study links emergency department crowding to higher death risk

A study of patients treated in emergency departments in England, Wales and Northern Ireland found that higher occupancy was associated with a greater risk of death within 28 days. Researchers estimated that applying their findings across the UK could correspond to about 550 excess deaths a week, but stressed that the figure is an uncertain extrapolation, not a count of deaths individually confirmed as caused by overcrowding. The research, presented at the European Emergency Medicine Congress, examined 19,034 patients and compared their outcomes with occupancy levels in the departments where they were treated. The analysis found that each 10% increase in occupancy was associated with a 1% increase in the risk of death from any cause within 28 days. Researchers reported average occupancy of 175%, meaning departments were treating more patients than the number of spaces available. They estimated that the findings, applied across the UK, could represent roughly 550 excess deaths per week during the study period. The plausible range they gave was 33 to 1,083 per week, reflecting substantial uncertainty in the estimate.