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Storm Prediction Center Issues Moderate Risk for Tornadoes and Large Hail

Published 18 May 2026

Millions of residents across the central United States are preparing for a significant outbreak of severe weather expected to bring powerful tornadoes, destructive winds, and large hail through Monday night. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has issued its highest alert, a Level 4 out of 5 “moderate risk” warning, for parts of central and northeast Kansas into far southeast Nebraska, including the city of Topeka. This indicates a significant threat of strong tornadoes and widespread storm damage.

A broader Level 3 “enhanced risk” area stretches from north-central Oklahoma into central Wisconsin, encompassing cities like Omaha, Sioux Falls, Des Moines, and Kansas City. Forecasters warn that atmospheric conditions are becoming ideal for dangerous supercell thunderstorms capable of producing EF2 or stronger tornadoes, hail larger than baseballs, and hurricane-force wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to shift eastward on Tuesday, with a Level 2 “slight risk” extending from northeast Texas to Michigan.

This new round of severe weather follows a weekend of storms that swept across the central U.S., triggering reports of tornadoes in Iowa, Kansas, and...

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