Shutdown Could Delay 2026 Social Security COLA Announcement

A federal government shutdown that began on Oct. 1 could delay the Social Security Administration’s mid‑October announcement of the 2026 cost‑of‑living adjustment, officials and analysts say, even though benefit payments themselves will continue on schedule. The delay stems from a suspension of operations at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which collects the September inflation data required to calculate the yearly adjustment that takes effect with January payments.

The Social Security COLA is set by the year‑over‑year change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers for the third quarter, July through September. With BLS staff largely furloughed, the September CPI‑W release is on hold, preventing the SSA from finalizing the official percentage it typically announces around Oct. 15. Analysts currently estimate the 2026 COLA at roughly 2.6 to 2.8 percent, with several forecasts converging near 2.7 percent, but that figure cannot be confirmed until the BLS resumes operations and issues the missing data.

Agency officials stressed that payments will not be interrupted. Because Social Security benefits are funded through mandatory trust funds, they are...