September Inflation Forecast to Rise as Core Cools

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release September inflation data Wednesday, October 14, with forecasts pointing to higher headline inflation and a slower increase in core prices. The figures were not yet available in reports published ahead of the release. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected that the Consumer Price Index would rise 0.6% from August, when it increased 0.4%. Other forecasts put the monthly increase at 0.5% to 0.6%. Annual headline inflation was expected to reach about 3.6% to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August. The estimates largely attributed the anticipated pickup to higher energy costs, particularly gasoline. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was generally forecast to rise 0.2% month over month, below August’s 0.3% increase. Forecasts for the annual core rate ranged from 2.4% to 2.5%. The gap between expected headline and core readings is central to assessing whether higher fuel costs are spreading to other goods and services. The release also provides the final month of data used to calculate the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.