Report: Quantum Threat Risks 6.9M BTC by 2030

A new report from quantum security firm Project Eleven warns that quantum computers capable of breaking the cryptographic foundations of major blockchains, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, could emerge as early as 2030, placing roughly 6.9 million Bitcoin, or about one-third of the circulating supply and worth over $560 billion at current prices, at risk of theft.

The analysis, titled "The Quantum Threat to Blockchains 2026 Report," highlights rapid advances in quantum hardware, error correction, and algorithms that have shortened the expected timeline for what experts call QDay, the arrival of a machine powerful enough to crack current encryption. Project Eleven researchers point to Shor's algorithm, developed in 1994, as the primary danger. This quantum technique can derive private keys from publicly exposed public keys, undermining elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) and related systems used by Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Unlike centralized financial systems, blockchains store transaction histories and public keys permanently on public ledgers, leaving no opportunity for retroactive fixes.

Vulnerable Bitcoin includes funds in reused addresses, older...