Quantum Research Lowers Qubits to Break Bitcoin Encryption

Recent research from Google and other teams has revealed that quantum computers could crack the elliptic curve cryptography securing Bitcoin and much of the internet with far fewer resources than previously estimated, potentially advancing the timeline for such threats to as early as 2029.

The findings, detailed in papers published in late March, focus on the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem, or ECDLP, a mathematical foundation for encryption methods like those used in Bitcoin's ECDSA signatures. Traditional computers struggle to solve ECDLP, but quantum algorithms such as Shor's could do so efficiently. One study from Google's Quantum AI lab estimates that a machine with 500,000 stable qubits could break a 256-bit elliptic curve key in about nine minutes on superconducting hardware. Another analysis, from researchers at Caltech-affiliated startup Oratomic, suggests even fewer qubits, around 10,000 to 20,000 using ultracold atoms, though the process might take years. These figures represent a sharp reduction from earlier projections, which often cited millions of qubits.

Current quantum systems remain distant from this capability. The largest arrays today hold about...