Polymarket Bets Net $630K Profit Before Maduro Capture

A mysterious trader on the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket turned a modest wager into a substantial profit by betting on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before U.S. forces captured him and his wife. The operation, which unfolded on January 3, 2026, in Caracas, has ignited concerns about potential insider trading amid heightened U.S.-Venezuela tensions.

Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain identified three digital wallets that executed the bets, netting a combined profit of approximately $630,000. One wallet, labeled 0x31a5, invested about $34,000 in contracts predicting Maduro would be removed from power by January 31, yielding nearly $410,000 in returns after the event materialized. The other two wallets wagered $25,000 and $5,800, respectively, profiting $145,600 and $75,000. These accounts were created and funded days earlier but remained dormant until the trades, which occurred shortly before the public announcement of the capture. They showed no prior activity in unrelated markets, focusing solely on Venezuela-related outcomes.

U.S. military forces, acting under orders from President Donald Trump, conducted the strike to...