Polls Show Different Measures of Midterm Voter Opinion

A final Echelon Insights poll found Democrats leading Republicans in voters’ congressional preferences, while respondents were slightly more likely to expect their neighbors to vote Republican, offering different snapshots of opinion ahead of the November 3 midterms. In the survey of 1,010 registered voters in the likely electorate, 40% said they expected neighbors to vote for Republican candidates, compared with 37% who expected them to vote Democratic. Another 23% were unsure. The poll reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. On their own congressional preferences, respondents favored Democrats by 50% to 45%. Asked which party would control the House after the election, 47% expected Democrats to prevail and 33% Republicans; 20% were unsure. For the Senate, 41% expected Democratic control and 36% Republican control, while 23% did not know. The survey was conducted October 15-19 and released October 20. Its neighbor question measured respondents’ expectations about other people’s choices, not those neighbors’ actual votes. The poll therefore does not establish how the election will turn out or which party will control Congress. A separate AtlasIntel...