Polls Show Cassidy Trailing in Louisiana GOP Primary

Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy is facing an uphill battle in his 2026 reelection campaign, with recent polls showing the Republican incumbent trailing his two main challengers in the state's GOP primary set for May 16.

A mid-March survey by BDPC Campaign Strategies found U.S. Representative Julia Letlow leading with 29 percent support among likely primary voters, followed by Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming at 23.5 percent. Cassidy placed third with 19.7 percent, while 26.8 percent of respondents remained undecided. The results indicate a fragmented field, with no candidate positioned to secure a majority and avoid a June runoff. Letlow's support rebounded from 21.3 percent in February, while Fleming gained steadily from 14.3 percent in January. Cassidy's numbers, by contrast, fell nearly eight points from a February peak of 27.5 percent, marking his lowest showing in the tracking period.

Potential runoff matchups underscore Cassidy's vulnerabilities. Letlow would defeat him 50.2 percent to 24.2 percent, and Fleming would win 48.7 percent to 26.3 percent. A head-to-head between Letlow and Fleming is nearly even, with Letlow at 34.3 percent and Fleming at 33.2 percent.