Polls differ on El-Sayed’s lead in Michigan Senate race

Two polls released September 30 show Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race among registered voters, while a separate likely-voter result puts the candidates nearly even, leaving the contest’s precise standing unclear. A Marist College survey of 1,235 registered voters, conducted September 24-27, found El-Sayed ahead 51% to 44%. The poll reported a margin of error of about 3.8 to 3.9 percentage points. The result gives El-Sayed a seven-point lead in that sample, but does not establish how likely voters will divide on Election Day. A separate poll conducted September 24-28 found El-Sayed leading Rogers 50% to 49% among 1,028 likely voters. The margin of sampling error for that subgroup was three percentage points, making the one-point gap consistent with a close race. Among registered voters in the same survey, El-Sayed led 51% to 48%. That was a reversal from August, when Rogers led the registered-voter sample 51% to 47%. The surveys are not directly comparable: one reported results for registered voters and the other included both registered-voter and likely-voter findings.