Poll Shows Close Senate Races in Five Trump-Won States

A Times/Siena poll found Democratic Senate candidates leading in Alaska, Texas and Ohio, with contests in Iowa and Kansas nearly tied, putting several Republican-held seats in play as voters prepare for November’s midterm elections. The survey covered five states that voted for Donald Trump in 2024 and measures likely-voter preferences, not election outcomes. In Alaska, former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola led Republican Senator Dan Sullivan 50% to 43%. In Texas, Democratic state Representative James Talarico was ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 45%. Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown led Republican Senator Jon Husted 49% to 46% in Ohio. The reported leads in Texas and Ohio were within the states’ margins of sampling error, while Alaska’s seven-point gap exceeded its reported margin. The other races were close. In Iowa, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson led Democratic state Representative Josh Turek 48% to 47%. In Kansas, Republican Senator Roger Marshall and Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton each received 45%. The results indicate competitive contests but do not establish which party will win any seat.