Poll Projects Plaid Cymru Leading Welsh Senedd Election

A new poll suggests Plaid Cymru is poised to become the largest party in the Senedd following the Welsh Parliament election on May 7, potentially ending Labour's dominance in Wales for the first time since devolution began in 1999. The survey, conducted by YouGov in partnership with ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, projects significant shifts under the newly introduced proportional representation system, which expands the assembly to 96 seats across 16 constituencies.

The MRP model, based on responses from nearly 3,000 Welsh adults interviewed between March 9 and 18, forecasts Plaid Cymru securing 43 seats with 33 percent of the vote, placing it six seats short of a majority. Reform UK follows closely with 30 seats and 27 percent support, a sharp rise from its two percent in the 2021 election. Labour is projected to win just 12 seats on 13 percent of the vote, a drop of 23 percentage points from its previous performance, while the Wales Green Party could claim 10 seats with 12 percent, marking its first representation in the Senedd. The Conservatives are expected to hold one seat on seven percent support, and the Liberal Democrats none on five percent.