Pirates ace Paul Skenes' velocity decline worsens slump

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes is mired in a significant and concerning slump, marked by a sharp decline in his signature velocity and a string of ineffective outings that have raised questions about his health and performance. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner endured one of his worst starts of the season on July 31, 2026, surrendering five runs on seven hits and four walks over just four innings in an 8-7 loss to the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park.

The performance pushed Skenes’s season earned run average to 3.90 through 23 starts, a stark contrast to the sub-2.00 ERAs that defined his first two dominant major league campaigns, which included a Rookie of the Year award in 2024 and the Cy Young in 2025. After the game, Skenes called it the sloppiest outing of the year, acknowledging he struggled to find his delivery and command from the beginning.

The most alarming trend underpinning his struggles is a measurable drop in fastball velocity. For the fourth consecutive start, Skenes failed to register a single pitch at 98 miles per hour or higher. Data from Codify Baseball illustrates a dramatic performance split: in the 48 career starts where he...