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Ontario Faces Flood Risk from Heavy Rain and Snowmelt

Published 7 March 2026

Environment Canada has issued special weather statements across parts of Ontario, warning of heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and potential flooding as unseasonably mild temperatures accelerate snowmelt from the region's harsh winter. The alerts, affecting areas from northern York Region and Barrie to Sault Ste. Marie and Temiskaming Shores, predict 15 to 40 millimetres of rain beginning Friday evening and continuing through Saturday, with higher amounts possible in isolated thunderstorms.

The combination of steady showers and warm air, with highs exceeding 10 degrees Celsius on Saturday and potentially reaching 15 degrees by Monday, is expected to melt much of the remaining snowpack. Frozen ground from the prolonged cold limits the soil's ability to absorb water, leading to increased runoff that could pool on roads and inundate low-lying areas. Officials note that several rounds of precipitation are forecast through Saturday evening, exacerbating the risk near rivers, creeks, and culverts where washouts may occur.

In addition to the rain, dense fog is anticipated in regions northwest of Toronto, such as Newmarket and Georgina, potentially reducing visibility to near zero and...

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