ONS revision points to 4.8% rise in UK state pension in 2026

A key Office for National Statistics revision has made it increasingly likely that the UK state pension will rise by 4.8 percent from April 2026, boosting payouts for millions of pensioners but bringing more recipients close to or into income tax liability. The ONS on Tuesday revised its estimate of total wage growth for May to July to 4.8 percent, up from 4.7 percent, and the Consumer Prices Index inflation figure for September that completes the triple lock calculation is due to be published on Wednesday.

Under the triple lock, introduced in 2011, the state pension increases each April by whichever is highest of annual wage growth for May to July, CPI inflation in September, or 2.5 percent. With CPI at 3.8 percent in August and forecasters expecting the September reading to be below the revised wage growth, analysts say wages are likely to determine next April’s rise.

If the 4.8 percent figure holds, the full new state pension would increase from £230.25 a week to about £241.30, and the full basic state pension from £176.45 to about £184.90, according to calculations by retirement analysts. That equates to a rise in the maximum annual state pension from about £11,973 to...