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Markets

Oil settles lower as investors assess Iran war outlook

Published 5 November 2026

Oil prices fell more than 8% on November 4, settling at their lowest levels since August 31, as investors weighed whether Democrats’ victory in the U.S. midterm elections could affect the war with Iran. Brent crude settled at $94.62 a barrel, down $8.98, or 8.7%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled at $88.12, down $7.97, or 8.3%. The reported settlement figures came later than earlier intraday prices that were higher. Democrats won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, while President Donald Trump said the conflict had played a role in his party’s defeat. Investors interpreted the shift in congressional power, alongside Trump’s comments about U.S. military action, as potentially increasing the prospect of a negotiated end to the war. That interpretation does not establish that a deal is imminent. Trump told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the United States had no immediate plans to strike Iran. Two people described as close to Gulf government circles said a weakened Trump would have greater incentive to seek an agreement and that a full-scale assault on Iran appeared less likely. Those assessments were not announced U.S. policy. Gulf analysts also...

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