Nobel Physicist Gross Warns of Nuclear Risk in 35 Years

Nobel Prize-winning physicist David Gross has warned that humanity faces an existential threat from nuclear war, estimating a roughly 35-year window before catastrophe could strike. The 83-year-old laureate, speaking in recent interviews and a lecture in Germany, calculated the timeline using a probability model akin to radioactive decay, suggesting a 50 percent chance of civilization's end within that period.

Gross, who shared the 2004 Nobel Prize in Physics for discoveries in quantum chromodynamics, based his assessment on escalating global risks. During the Cold War era, even with arms control treaties in place, experts estimated a one percent annual probability of nuclear conflict. Gross now places the odds at two percent per year, or a one-in-50 chance annually, due to worsening conditions over the past three decades. "Things have gotten so much worse in the last 30 years, as you can see every time you read the newspaper," he said in an interview with Live Science.

Key factors include the proliferation of nuclear arsenals, with nine nations now possessing weapons, up from two superpowers during the Cold War. Gross noted that managing even three nuclear powers proves far...