NHC lifts odds to 80% Gulf system becomes tropical depression

A weather system in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is rapidly organizing and is likely to become a tropical depression on Sunday, July 19, or Monday, July 20, according to the National Hurricane Center. The agency has significantly increased the probability of development to 80 percent within the next 48 hours, up from just 20 percent on Saturday morning.

The disturbance, which the NHC began tracking earlier in the week, now shows a better-defined center of circulation with increasing showers and thunderstorms. Forecasters stated that continued gradual development is expected as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward over the next few days. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the Air Force Reserve was scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday to gather critical data on its structure and intensity.

Tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued for portions of the Florida Gulf Coast and the northern Gulf Coast as early as Sunday. Regardless of formal development, the system is expected to be a prolific rainmaker. Heavy rainfall bands are forecast to move onshore, affecting areas from Florida's west coast through the Big Bend region and into the coasts of...