Myanmar Military Regains Civil War Momentum

Myanmar's military, known as the Tatmadaw, has regained momentum in the country's ongoing civil war, reversing losses from over a year ago and positioning itself for a renewed offensive with tens of thousands of new conscripts bolstering its ranks.

A little more than a year ago, the Tatmadaw had been pushed out of large areas in northern Myanmar by the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armed organizations and forced into defensive positions elsewhere by other established groups and pro-democracy People's Defense Forces, or PDFs. The alliance's major offensive began on October 27, 2023. Now, opposition forces face challenges including ceasefires by some groups, internal divisions and supply shortages among others. "We're nearing a crescendo here where the Tatmadaw is going to reassert itself and the resistance movement is going to peter out," said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project. He added that armed resistance would persist without a comprehensive political solution, but the military has retaken the strategic initiative.

The conflict, which erupted after the military...