MPI estimates 980,000 deportations in Trump’s first 18 months

The Migration Policy Institute estimates that about 980,000 deportations took place during the first 18 months of President Donald Trump’s second term, while projecting a fiscal 2026 pace of about 660,000, below the administration’s stated annual target of 1 million. The institute’s estimate covers January 20, 2025, through July 31, 2026, and includes formal removals and returns. Its fiscal 2026 figure is an annualized projection based on partial-year data, not a completed-year count. MPI said the projected pace would be 26% above the average of about 524,000 a year during fiscal 2021 through 2024. MPI’s analysis breaks the 980,000 total into roughly 340,000 people turned back by Customs and Border Protection at the border, another 340,000 initially intercepted there and later deported by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and about 300,000 arrested inside the United States. The share of deportations involving people arrested inside the country rose from 28% in 2025 to 39% in July 2026. The institute estimated that 20% of all deportations involved people with criminal convictions. Among those deported who had lived in the United States for at least two years, 71% had no...