Mizuho Cuts Circle Target, Warns of AI Revenue Risk

Mizuho cut its price target for Circle Internet Group to $43 from $45, maintained its Underperform rating and warned that wider use of AI financial assistants could put 10% to 20% of Circle’s reserve revenue at risk over the medium term. The brokerage’s analysis rests on simulated recommendations, not evidence that users have moved funds out of USDC. Mizuho estimated that broader adoption of AI agents could reduce USDC’s market capitalization by $4 billion to $9 billion. The stablecoin is backed by reserves that generate interest income for Circle, so lower USDC balances could reduce the assets earning that income. The estimates describe a possible future effect, rather than realized losses. In simulations, AI agents often recommended interest-paying insured bank products over USDC. Mizuho also found that agents could recommend other platforms when users asked about digital assets. The tests measured what the systems suggested; they did not establish that users followed the advice or transferred money. The brokerage’s faster-adoption scenario assumes about $7 billion shifts to fiat products and another $2 billion to higher-yielding stablecoins. Under that scenario, Mizuho said...