Massie Holds Narrow Lead in KY-4 GOP Primary

U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie holds a narrow lead over Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein in the Republican primary for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, with the May 19 election less than two weeks away in the solidly Republican Northern Kentucky district.

Recent polls show Massie ahead, though the margin has tightened. A Big Data Poll of 433 likely voters from April 3-7 gave Massie 52.4 percent to Gallrein's 47.6 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. A Quantus Insights survey of 438 likely Republican primary voters on April 6-7 found Massie at 46.8 percent, Gallrein at 37.7 percent and 14 percent undecided, also with a plus or minus 4.4-point margin. Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket give Massie a 72 percent chance of victory. Local Republican officials describe the race as the closest Massie has faced, with his edge shrinking amid heavy negative advertising.

The contest has drawn record spending, potentially the most expensive House primary in Kentucky history, with more than $23 million poured in by candidates and outside groups. Massie's campaign raised over $1 million in a single day through a "Moneybomb" fundraiser. Gallrein, a retired...