Latvian intel warns of Russian hybrid attacks on NATO

Latvian intelligence officials have warned that Russia is preparing possible hybrid military provocations against NATO's eastern flank, including the Baltic states or Poland, in an attempt to pressure Western nations to abandon support for Ukraine. The assessment, delivered on June 23, indicates Moscow is unlikely to launch a conventional war but could employ drone strikes, missile attacks, cyber operations, or other covert actions designed to intimidate.

Officials stated their primary concern is not Russia's current military capability but the risk of a catastrophic miscalculation by President Vladimir Putin, who they described as increasingly isolated and receiving overly optimistic reports from his institutions. This environment, they warned, could lead to "foolish and senseless decisions," such as underestimating NATO's resolve to respond to an attack on a member state. Any significant provocation against a NATO ally could trigger the alliance's Article 5 collective defense commitment, risking a dangerous escalation.

The warning aligns with concerns previously expressed by Polish officials, who have described a Russian hybrid campaign against NATO's eastern flank as already...