JPMorgan Sees US Humanoid Robot Output Reaching 1.5 Million

JPMorgan Chase forecasts that U.S. humanoid robot production could reach 300,000 to 400,000 units annually by 2030 and about 1.5 million by 2035, as manufacturers seek to expand beyond prototypes into commercial use. The figures are projections, not reported production results, and depend on the industry overcoming technical and manufacturing constraints, the bank said.

JPMorgan said labor shortages and improving economics could encourage businesses in manufacturing, logistics and warehousing to use humanoid robots for repetitive physical work. It estimates that operating robots across multiple shifts could save a customer about $100,000 a year. That potential saving is an estimate, not a guaranteed return for every deployment.

The bank identified hardware availability, access to artificial-intelligence training data, computing capacity and manufacturing output as factors that could limit growth. Most U.S. humanoid-robot developers, with Tesla as an exception, are targeting annual production of 10,000 to 30,000 units, according to JPMorgan. That range describes developers’ targets, rather than current industry output.

JPMorgan also estimates that the market for key components,...