J.P. Morgan projects 10% annual Bitcoin return

J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s 2027 long-term market assumptions project that Bitcoin will deliver a 10% annual compounded return over the next 10 to 15 years, exceeding the firm’s forecasts for U.S. large-cap stocks, real estate investment trusts and gold. The projection is a model assumption, not a guarantee or investment recommendation. The outlook, released October 19, gives Bitcoin a projected annual compounded return of 10%, compared with 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 8.2% for U.S. real estate investment trusts and 5.5% for gold. The assumptions cover more than 200 asset classes and are intended to support long-term strategic planning. The firm assigns Bitcoin annualized volatility of 55%, substantially higher than its estimates for traditional assets. It also lists a 20.9% arithmetic average annual return for Bitcoin. The arithmetic and compounded figures describe different measures: the latter accounts for the effects of gains and losses over time, while the former is a simple average of annual returns. Despite adding Bitcoin to its return analysis for the first time, J.P. Morgan has not included it in its main portfolio allocation models. The firm cites Bitcoin’s...