Item Club Forecasts 163,000 UK Job Losses This Year

A new report from the Item Club forecasts 163,000 net job losses across the United Kingdom this year, equivalent to a 0.4 percent decline in employment, driven by economic fallout from the war in Iran.

The independent forecasting group attributes the downturn primarily to sharp rises in energy prices, supply chain disruptions from the Middle East conflict, and soaring costs for fuel, materials, ingredients, and shipping. These pressures are expected to curb consumer spending and hit manufacturing and construction sectors hardest, particularly in lower-income regions like South Wales and the Humber. The report predicts 5,700 job cuts in South Wales and 2,800 in the Humber by 2026.

"Some of the lowest income regions will feel the biggest effects of the manufacturing and construction sectors reducing headcount in the face of rising energy prices and supply chain disruption," said Tim Lyne, economic adviser to the Item Club. "While consumers in these areas typically have less rainy-day savings, which will reduce spending in the retail and hospitality sectors."

Retail and hospitality face the steepest declines in major cities, with London projected to lose 25,000 jobs, Birmingham...