Iran threatens trade routes to pressure US on Hormuz

Iran is pursuing a strategy of calibrated escalation across the Middle East, betting it can outlast the United States by steadily raising the cost of confrontation through threats to global trade routes and energy infrastructure, according to regional officials and analysts. The approach aims to widen the conflict without triggering a full-scale war, with the central goal of forcing Washington to accept a larger Iranian role in governing the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

The core of Tehran's strategy is to convince the U.S. and its allies that managing the crisis is more expensive than accommodating Iran's demands. Having demonstrated an ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carried roughly one-fifth of the world's oil before the conflict, Iran has signaled that other key maritime chokepoints are also at risk. Officials cite potential threats to the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure as part of a broader effort to test Washington's tolerance for disruption to global commerce.

Analysts describe Iran's method as a war of endurance. Michael Knights of the Washington Institute said Iran has tried to out-escalate the United States by...