Investors weigh market risks as U.S. midterm vote begins

Investors are assessing how the U.S. midterm elections could affect markets, but forecasts differ and no election result or market response has been established. Analysts and investors have focused on whether a change in control of Congress would alter policy expectations and add volatility. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are being contested. Polls cited in the reports suggested Democrats were favored to win the House, while the Senate contest was close. Those were pre-election expectations, not results. JPMorgan forecast that the S&P 500 could fall about 0.5% on Wednesday, Nov. 4, if Democrats won both chambers, according to CNBC’s reporting. The estimate is conditional. Options pricing, meanwhile, implied a move of about 0.8% in either direction that day, compared with an average implied daily move of 0.6% over the previous month, Reuters reported. Neither figure establishes how stocks will move after the vote. Investor positioning is also described differently. A Wolfe Research survey of more than 100 institutional investors, reported by CNBC, found no broad portfolio tilt toward a particular outcome. Colin White, president and CEO of Veracan Capital Management,...