Hochul Leads Blakeman in Siena Poll, Quinnipiac Shows Wider Gap

Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by nine percentage points among likely New York voters in a new Siena poll, while a separate Quinnipiac survey released the same day found a substantially larger 19-point advantage for the incumbent. The differing results leave the scale of Hochul’s lead uncertain, though both polls put her ahead less than six weeks before the November 3 election. Siena’s September survey gave Hochul 50% support to Blakeman’s 41%, a slight widening from her 49%-to-39% lead in August. The poll surveyed likely voters from September 11 through 17. Reports gave different totals for the number surveyed, but said 991 respondents completed the full questionnaire; its margin of error was 4.2 percentage points. The core questions had a reported margin of error of 3.9 points. Quinnipiac’s survey, conducted September 17 through 20 with 1,026 likely voters, put Hochul ahead 58% to 39%, with a margin of error of 4.1 points. The polls used separate samples and field dates, and the available results do not explain why their estimates differ so sharply. Neither survey establishes the eventual result.