Hayes says Bitcoin may hit $1M if AI credit bubble bursts

Prominent cryptocurrency commentator Arthur Hayes has predicted that Bitcoin could eventually surpass $1 million if a debt-fueled boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure ends in a credit crisis, forcing a massive government liquidity response. Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, outlined his thesis in an essay published on August 5, 2026.

Hayes argues that the current wave of investment in AI data centers and power infrastructure more closely resembles a leveraged real estate or credit bubble, akin to the U.S. housing market before the 2008 financial crisis, rather than a traditional technology equity bubble like the dot-com era. He contends that lenders, private credit funds, and governments are financing a massive buildout under the assumption of indefinite demand growth, an assumption he believes will eventually break down.

He forecasts that the growth rate of AI capital expenditure will begin to slow in the second half of 2027, with a more visible deceleration by 2028. This slowdown, Hayes suggests, could expose companies and investors that borrowed heavily, potentially leading to a credit contraction. He points to the scale of...