Gulf Oil Exports Rebound as Hormuz Attacks Persist

Oil exports from the Gulf have rebounded toward prewar levels even as attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz and sharply higher tanker costs raise questions about how secure and sustainable the recovery is. Kpler estimated that Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovered to more than 81 percent of prewar levels in September. Its seven-day average for wider Middle East crude exports reached 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, compared with an average of about 18 million barrels per day in the 12 months before the conflict. The estimates cover regional exports, however, and do not establish how much oil passed through the strait itself. A significant share of shipments is moving by other means. Kpler estimated that about 40 percent of current oil exports bypass Hormuz, while much of the crude that crosses is transferred between tankers offshore. Saudi Arabia has also used its East-West pipeline to carry oil to the Red Sea. These routes and transfers have helped producers move crude despite disruption in the waterway, but add complexity and cost to shipping. The recovery has coincided with continued reports of attacks.