Goldman Sachs Lowers Q2 2026 Oil Price Forecasts

Goldman Sachs lowered its forecasts for second-quarter 2026 oil prices on Wednesday, projecting Brent crude to average $90 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude at $87 per barrel, down from earlier estimates of $99 and $91, respectively. The revision follows a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, which has eased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and reduced the geopolitical risk premium influencing near-term prices.

The bank's commodity analysts attributed the adjustment to a decline in the risk premium embedded in oil futures, particularly for deliveries in the coming months, combined with early increases in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. "Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH Strait of Hormuz, we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent-WTI," the analysts wrote in a research note. Brent crude traded at $97.33 per barrel and WTI at $97.93 on Thursday, after falling more than 11 percent earlier in the week on expectations of reopening the vital waterway.

The ceasefire, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, aims to de-escalate conflicts that had threatened...