Global cancer cases projected to reach 30.5 million by 2050

A major international analysis published in The Lancet on Thursday projects that global cancer cases will surge to 30.5 million by 2050, an increase of roughly 60 percent from current levels, and that annual cancer deaths will climb to about 18.6 million, up nearly 75 percent. The study, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington and produced by the Global Burden of Disease Study Cancer Collaborators, attributes the rise primarily to population growth and ageing.

The report tracks 47 cancer types across 204 countries and territories and finds that annual new cases more than doubled between 1990 and 2023, from about 9 million to 18.5 million, while deaths rose from roughly 6 million to 10.4 million. Some presentations of the data cite a 2024 baseline of 19.0 million new cases; the variations reflect different reporting years used in summaries but point to a consistent projection toward 30.5 million by midcentury.

Researchers emphasized that demographic change, not rising age-standardized risk alone, will drive much of the increase. If a standard age structure is used, global age-standardized cancer incidence is forecast to fall...