Gallrein Leads Massie in KY-4 GOP Primary Poll

In Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein leads incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie in the latest poll of likely Republican primary voters, with the May 19 contest drawing national attention as one of the most expensive House primaries in U.S. history.

A Quantus Insights survey conducted May 11-12 among 908 likely GOP primary voters showed Gallrein with 48.3 percent support to Massie's 43.1 percent, and 7.6 percent undecided. When leaners were allocated, Gallrein's advantage grew to 52.8 percent against Massie's 45.1 percent. The poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. This marks a reversal from April polls, where Massie held leads of 7 to 16 points. Prediction markets also reflect a close race.

The district, which spans from Louisville's eastern suburbs along the Ohio River through Cincinnati's northern outskirts and into Appalachian foothills, is deeply Republican. It supported President Donald Trump by more than 35 points in 2024, positioning the primary winner as the strong general election favorite. Spending has exceeded $25 million on advertising, according to tracking data, fueled by national groups aligned with Trump...