Galaxy Research cuts CLARITY Act passage odds to 50%

A prominent financial research firm has lowered its odds for the passage of a major cryptocurrency regulatory bill this year, citing a rapidly shrinking legislative calendar and unresolved policy disputes in the U.S. Senate. Galaxy Research, led by analyst Alex Thorn, now estimates a 50% chance the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 60%.

The legislation, which aims to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, advanced through the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with bipartisan support in a 15-9 vote. It has been on the Senate's legislative calendar since June 1 but has not been scheduled for a floor vote. Analysts point to the Senate's impending August recess at the end of July as a critical deadline, leaving only a few weeks of productive legislative time.

The primary obstacle is intense competition for limited Senate floor time. Other high-priority items, including the reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and the annual National Defense Authorization Act, are expected to take precedence. Furthermore, President Donald Trump's recent statement that he would not sign a bipartisan housing bill...