Fossil fuel production set to overshoot 1.5C pathway, report finds

Governments are planning higher levels of coal, oil and gas production over the coming decades, a major new analysis released Monday found, pushing planned output far beyond what would be compatible with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The Production Gap 2025 report, produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics and the International Institute for Sustainable Development, found that projected 2030 production of fossil fuels is roughly 120 percent above levels consistent with a 1.5C pathway and 77 percent higher than what would be consistent with keeping warming to below 2C.

The peer reviewed study examined government plans or projections for 20 of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers, which together account for about 80 percent of global extraction. It found that 17 of those countries plan to increase production of at least one fossil fuel by 2030, and that 11 of the 20 have raised planned production since the last assessment in 2023. The report also models global production by scaling these country data to the rest of the world.

Derik Broekhoff, coordinating lead author, said many governments remain wedded to a...