Fitch sees oil prices above $100 until July as Hormuz closes

Global oil prices are projected to remain elevated above $100 per barrel through July 2026 due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, before sharply declining once the critical waterway reopens, according to a new report from Fitch Ratings. The ratings agency forecasts that Brent crude will average between $100 and $110 per barrel from May through July, then drop to around $80 in August and approximately $70 from September onward.

Fitch’s base-case scenario assumes the strait will reopen around the end of July, ending an effective five-month closure that has blocked the transit of roughly 20 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This volume represents about one-fifth of global oil consumption. The disruption has been most acute for Asian markets, which previously received 91 percent of the oil shipped through the strait, with China and India accounting for nearly half of those volumes.

The agency characterizes the current price surge as a logistical supply shock rather than a permanent loss of production capacity, noting there has been no material damage to regional oil infrastructure. This suggests Middle Eastern production could recover quickly once shipping...