Fine Gael blueprint puts unity costs at up to €25bn in year one

Fine Gael’s blueprint for Irish unity estimates that the first-year cost to the Irish Exchequer could range from about €3.2 billion to €25 billion, depending on how unification was designed and whether Britain agreed to a settlement on pensions and debt. The party also proposes new government planning structures and a sovereign wealth fund to prepare for possible transition costs.

The report was published at Fine Gael’s Ard Fheis in Cork. It models four possible approaches to unification and says there is no single fixed cost. The €25 billion estimate represents the highest-cost scenario, in which pay and welfare are brought to Irish levels immediately and Britain provides no settlement on debt or pensions. The lower first-year estimate depends on the design and terms of any agreement with the British Government.

The blueprint estimates that the highest-cost scenario could reach €41.2 billion in year 25. Under managed integration, which phases pay and welfare changes over 15 years, the estimated annual cost in that year ranges from €4.2 billion to €24.1 billion. The report also models €1.5 billion in additional annual investment during the first decade of managed integration and...