Fed Expected to Raise Rates Under Warsh in First Hike in Years

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is widely expected to lead the Federal Open Market Committee in a quarter-point interest rate hike at its meeting concluding Wednesday, September 16, 2026. The anticipated increase, which would lift the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, would mark the first rate hike under Warsh's leadership and the first increase in over three years. Financial markets have priced in a high probability of the move, with futures traders indicating better than a 92% chance of a hike. The decision is driven by persistent inflation, with the latest August data showing headline consumer price inflation at 3.4% and core inflation at 2.4%, alongside oil prices that have surged above $100 a barrel. Warsh has repeatedly emphasized the Fed's intolerance for inflation and the need to deliver on its price stability mandate. The White House has signaled its support for the Fed's independence ahead of the decision. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated that President Donald Trump and his team respect Warsh's call on interest rates.