European intelligence chiefs warn Russia could test NATO soon

Several European intelligence officials warned this week that Russia could test NATO within months rather than years, though assessments diverge on how imminent any such move actually is. Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic's BIS security service, said in an interview that a Russian operation could involve a limited incursion into NATO territory, false-flag provocations, increased drone activity or a major influence campaign. He said such a scenario could emerge in a matter of months, not years, while adding that many people are doing everything they can to make sure it does not happen. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament that Polish intelligence assessments indicate Russia could launch drone or missile attacks on NATO territory within months. Officials say Moscow appears emboldened by a belief that the alliance lacks unanimity on how to respond to a direct attack, and that a provocation could show Article 5 is more theoretical than practical. Not all officials share that timeline.