EIA Forecasts 600,000 Bpd of Middle East Oil Offline Through 2027

The U.S. Energy Information Administration now expects oil supply disruptions from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East to average roughly 600,000 barrels per day through the end of 2027, a significant downgrade from the peak of the crisis but a signal of a prolonged recovery for global energy markets. The forecast, released in the agency's August Short-Term Energy Outlook, indicates that while the worst of the supply shock has passed, the path back to normalcy remains long and uncertain.

The disruptions stem from the conflict that began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities in late February and early March 2026. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that normally handles about 20 million barrels of oil per day, saw flows collapse to near zero at the conflict's worst moments. According to the EIA, oil transported through the waterway averaged just 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, compared to an average of 21.6 million in the last quarter of 2025.

The agency estimates that Middle East production shut-ins eased to an average of about 5.5 million barrels per day in July, down from a peak of 10.1 million barrels per day during...