Dual chokepoints heighten global oil risk

The global oil market has weathered a months-long crisis triggered by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, though severe economic disruption remains a looming threat as geopolitical tensions persist. The strait, which carried roughly one-fifth of the world's traded oil before the conflict, was effectively closed following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28 and subsequent Iranian retaliation.

In response, Iran launched drone and missile strikes against oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and targeted commercial shipping, causing a dramatic decline in vessel traffic through the waterway. The immediate loss of an estimated 15 million barrels per day from global circulation prompted fears of a catastrophic energy crisis, with predictions of oil prices reaching $200 per barrel and triggering a global recession.

A coordinated international response, however, helped avert the worst outcomes. In March, the International Energy Agency coordinated a historic release of more than 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves across more than 30 countries. Major oil producers, including the United States, Venezuela, and...