Democrats Lead in Polls as Trump Discontent and Shutdown Define 2026

Two national polls conducted in late October show Democrats holding an edge over Republicans in the contest for control of Congress one year before the 2026 midterm elections, as voters express growing dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s performance and widespread concern about an ongoing federal government shutdown. The surveys, taken Oct. 24–30, put Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot by about five to eight points and find the president’s approval rating in the high 30s to low 40s while disapproval sits in the mid 50s to low 60s.

The polling captures several related dynamics shaping the 2026 campaign. Large majorities of registered voters say the Trump administration has fallen short of expectations on the economy, the cost of living and on changing business as usual in Washington. Roughly two thirds of respondents said the administration had not met expectations on economic issues. At the same time, voters ranked protecting democracy and constitutional rights among their top concerns for deciding their congressional vote, with about a quarter naming those as their single most important issue.

The shutdown is a central factor. A majority of...