CryptoQuant Founder Forecasts a Milder Bitcoin Cycle

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju expects Bitcoin to rise three to five times from its cycle low, rather than repeat the roughly tenfold rallies of earlier cycles, and predicts a milder downturn afterward. The September 22 forecast, shared in a post on X, is a view about the market’s trajectory, not a specific price target: Ju did not state a dollar figure, a timeframe or the precise starting point for the multiple. Ju attributes the expected change to Bitcoin’s larger market and growing institutional ownership. In his view, these factors are reducing the force of speculative buying and selling that helped drive sharp rallies and steep declines in earlier cycles. The same market structure that could limit gains, he argues, may also soften the next bear market. He cited on-chain indicators to support that assessment. Ju said Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, which compares market value with holders’ cost basis, had not fallen below 1 during the current cycle. He interpreted that as evidence that holders overall had remained above their aggregate purchase price, while acknowledging that individual investors may have taken losses.