Cowboys Favored Over Giants in Week 1 Sunday Night Football

The Dallas Cowboys are favored to defeat the New York Giants in the NFL's Week 1 Sunday Night Football matchup at MetLife Stadium, with predictive models and betting markets giving Dallas a 61% win probability. The game, scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET on September 14, 2026, comes after a last-minute roster move by the Cowboys. On Saturday, September 13, Cowboys running back Malik Davis was placed on injured reserve and will miss the entire 2026 season. To fill the roster spot, Dallas promoted Israel Abanikanda from the practice squad. The move solidifies Javonte Williams as the Cowboys' featured running back. The Cowboys enter the game as 2.5-point favorites. According to a predictive model from Dimers, which ran 10,000 simulations, Dallas has a 61% chance of winning and a 55% chance of covering the spread. The model projects a final score of 25-22 in favor of Dallas. Prediction market Polymarket also prices the Cowboys at a 61% win probability. The matchup marks the debut of John Harbaugh as the Giants' head coach. Harbaugh, who previously coached the Baltimore Ravens, is 4-1 against the Cowboys in his career.